Ethereum Price Analysis – The $3.2K Pivot
TL;DR (Conditional): Two pivots matter most: (1) Spot structure around $4.35K–$4.45K, (2) ETH/BTC holding 0.038–0.040. If ETH holds both on daily/weekly closes → upside retests toward $4.80K–$5.00K. If ETH loses $4.10K → cautious retrace toward $3.90K–$4.00K. Data as of Sep 10, 2025 (UTC).
Daily Structure
The prior rally overheated momentum, but the RSI cooled into the neutral 50 zone — a healthy reset rather than panic selling. At the same time, volume declined, hinting that this is a natural pause (not forced liquidation). Bollinger Bands are compressing while MACD flattens above zero, often a prelude to volatility expansion. This process mirrors earlier phases (e.g., May–June 2025), when ETH also paused with RSI reset + volume fade before resuming trend. Similar setups don’t guarantee outcomes, but they form useful scenarios.
Conditional Scenarios (Daily):
– Bullish: Daily close above $4.35K–$4.45K → opens $4.80K, $5.00K.
– Neutral: Rejection at pivot but holding $4.10K–$4.20K → sideways compression.
– Bearish: Daily close below $4.10K → room down to $3.90K–$4.00K. Look for wick volume to confirm demand.
Weekly Context
On the weekly chart, ETH is trading well above the 20-week Bollinger Band midline (~$3.25K), which historically separates sustainable rallies from cyclical drawdowns. The weekly RSI cooled into the low 60s, and the weekly MACD has flattened after months of upside drive — typical of mid-cycle digestion.
Conditional Scenarios (Weekly):
– Upside continuation: Weekly close above $4.80K–$5.00K → flips resistance into support, opens path to new highs.
– Range extension: Failure to break $4.80K keeps ETH in $4.0K–$4.8K box.
– Deeper reset: Weekly close below $4.0K → $3.5K–$3.8K retracement back to long-term averages.
Market Rotation — ETH/BTC & Dominance
ETH/BTC surged from 0.018 → 0.043. Current structure balances at 0.038–0.040, aligning with Fib 0.236 (0.0374). Below that, 0.0338 (Fib 0.382) and 0.0308 (Fib 0.5) mark deeper reversion levels. ETH Dominance sits at 13.6% after rejecting above 14%. This is corrective, but still consistent with higher-lows since April.
Conditional Scenarios (ETH/BTC + Dominance):
– Relative strength holds: Weekly close above 0.038–0.040 → opens 0.042–0.045 retest.
– Controlled pullback: Lose 0.0374 → retrace to 0.036–0.035 (Fib 0.382).
– Deeper unwind: Breakdown toward 0.0308 (Fib 0.5). Lower probability, but statistical mean-reversion target.
Editorial View
What matters is not “will ETH hit $5K or $3.5K?” but how ETH behaves around key levels. RSI reset, volume fade, band squeeze, MACD plateau — these are signs of a market pausing, not ending. If/then thinking keeps analysis transparent: if ETH reclaims $4.45K, bullish path opens. If ETH loses $4.10K, caution rules. Volatility is not a bug of Ethereum — it’s the very feature that creates opportunity.
Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. All trading/investment decisions remain the responsibility of the reader. This content is for educational purposes only.
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