Bitwise Forecasts $122B of Crypto Inflows via U.S. 401(k) Plans, Potentially Driving Bitcoin Past $200K

🔑 Key Takeaways

• Bitwise projects that even a conservative 1% allocation from the $12.2 trillion U.S. 401(k) ecosystem could inject $122 billion into crypto.

• Such inflows could propel Bitcoin above $200,000 by end of 2025.

• A new U.S. executive order signed in August opens retirement plans to crypto.

• If replicated globally, the domino effect could reshape Bitcoin into a mainstream global asset.

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🗞 Main Story

Bitwise Asset Management highlights that U.S. 401(k) plans—the backbone of retirement savings—hold roughly $12.2 trillion, more than all U.S. ETFs combined. If just 1% of these assets were shifted into Bitcoin, the market could see $122B in inflows, driving BTC toward ~$194,000. A 10% allocation would represent ~$1.22T, pushing projections as high as $868,700 per BTC.

This was enabled by an executive order signed on Aug 7, 2025, which explicitly authorized cryptocurrencies, alongside private equity and real estate, as eligible assets in retirement plans. With asset managers like BlackRock and Fidelity already running spot Bitcoin ETFs, the infrastructure is in place for rapid adoption.

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🔬 Expert Opinions

• André Dragosch (Head of Research, Bitwise Europe): “The inclusion of Bitcoin in 401(k) plans could be even more consequential than the U.S. spot ETF approvals.”

• Financial advisor surveys suggest 2.5%–3% BTC allocations as standard guidance, implying inflows well beyond the base-case 1% estimate.

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🌟 Implications

U.S. retirement inclusion creates a new pipeline of capital for crypto, potentially shifting Bitcoin from a “speculative asset” to a core portfolio component. Beyond price impact, it signals regulatory normalization—retirement savings, the most conservative capital, are now being steered toward Bitcoin.

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🛬 Sources

• Phemex – “Bitwise Predicts $122B Inflows to Crypto from US 401(k) Plans”

• Cointelegraph – “US retirement plans could fuel Bitcoin rally to $200K”

• AInvest – “Bitcoin Price Could Hit $194,000 With 1% 401(k) Allocation Shift”

• Barron’s – “Trump Signs Executive Order Allowing Private Equity and Crypto Into 401(k)s”

• MarketWatch – “Trump administration rescinds Biden-era caution about crypto in 401(k) plans”

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📝 Editorial Opinion

From Retirement Accounts to a Global Asset: The Next Leap for Bitcoin

Bitwise’s $122B projection is impressive, but the real impact lies beyond U.S. borders. The U.S. retirement system is the global benchmark. Once Bitcoin enters American 401(k) accounts, the ripple effect will be felt worldwide.

• Europe: Pension systems in the UK and Germany mirror the 401(k) structure. If Americans can buy Bitcoin for retirement, Europeans will demand the same access. Regulators will face pressure not to fall behind.

• Asia: Japan and South Korea, with massive pension reserves, could follow quickly. What starts in the U.S. can spark national-level FOMO in Asia, where governments compete to modernize retirement funds.

• Emerging Markets:  Countries with unstable currencies—like Argentina or Turkey—may view Bitcoin as a hedge at the sovereign level, legitimized by U.S. adoption.

This cascade could transform Bitcoin from a high-risk asset into a recognized global asset class, alongside bonds and equities. In such a scenario, Bitwise’s $200K target may actually prove conservative—a mere waypoint if national pension systems worldwide allocate even a fraction of their holdings.

Of course, early stages may amplify volatility. Rapid inflows could fuel speculative rallies, followed by corrections.But as participation broadens globally, ownership disperses, and volatility naturally decreases.

In short: what begins as a 1% allocation in the U.S. could evolve into a global standard. If that domino effect takes hold, Bitcoin’s role will shift from fringe speculation to foundational finance—and its valuation ceiling will rise far beyond current forecasts.